Wednesday, May 9, 2012

NFL Draft Evaluation 2012


Each year the NFL draft provides an opportunity for teams to cheaply acquire franchise changing talents, address depth concerns and indulge in a mystery market of athletes who could represent an opportunity to change the course, and direction of the future of inumerable franchises. Twenty-five years ago the draft was a parochial affair, die hard fans would tune in saturday and sunday morning, and watch Mel Kiper disect obscure selections like Chico State tight end Chris Verhulst, and accidentally obscure selections like #1 overall bust Aundray Bruce. Newspaper would note who was selected and little else (unless you were lucky enough to subscribe to a newspaper with a draftnik sportswriter like Ira Miller in San Francisco, or pick up Joel Buschbaum's write ups for Pro Football Weekly). What a difference a quarter century has made. With the rapidly accelerating popularity of the NFL, and the advent of the plasma screen HDTV with thousands of channels, the internet, iphones and ipads, fans today have the ability to access every detail imaginable on undrafted as well as drafted players alike, and boyfriends like me can surreptitiously consult an iphone in the wine country to find out what defensive back the redskins selected in the fifth round while tasting an uneven Syrah at Young's vineyard in Amador County. Quite simply, the sporting world has changed, and changed radically for the better, and for the worse. However, what of the teams we follow? Have they changed for the better, or for the worse, or are they stuck, in a static profile of indecision. What can we expect in the 2012 season? My Thoughts:
The Mount Rushmore of the NFL:
The George Washington: New England
New England, the George Washington of the current era, finally officially climbed out of the muck of the 2006-2009 era of miserable drafts which has crippled the dynasty and scuttled their attempts to build on their 2001-2004 success with more Lombardi's. With '10 and '11 drafts revamping their offense (Aaron Hernandez, The Gronk, Solder, running back tandem Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen, and punter Zoltan Mesko), and defense (Spikes, Dowling, and McCorty), and adding a hypertalented big armed quarterback prospect in Ryan Mallet. New England also ended the disturbing trend of perpetually trading away the present for a mystical future that might never come by trading up last weekend for infusions of talent to the front seven in Chandler Jones, and Donta Hightower, if both players contribute as expected, they will help the LB corps a great deal, finally adding a piece to assist Jerod Mayo in his work, and to help Vince Wilfork, and Ty Warren and the exhausted DL which hasn't had a consistent genuine passing rushing threat to draw attention from them in half a decade. New England already added key pieces for the offense in free agency, and if Lloyd can deliver, as he should, being reunited with the only coach who ever got him to perform in McDaniels, the Patriots offense will finally have a deep threat for the first time since Randy Moss was last productive three years ago. If Ridley can carry the running game as well as they suspect, the Patriots should contend for an AFC crown yet again, and be better positioned to hold off a last second TD draft as they failed to do in 2008 and 2012. A-
The T.R.'s: Baltimore and Pittsburgh
What can we say about Baltimore, and Pittsburgh? They are clearly vying for T.R.'s role on Rushmore, and somehow, for the umpteenth time in a row, managed to draft well, despite drafting late. We all know who gets it done in Baltimore, Ozzie, but how does Pittsburgh do it? I can't quite tell you, I can only say that Baltimore and Pittsburgh have owned the draft in the AFC for a decade and continue to do so. Pittsburgh played it cool and simply drafted the best guys available to rebuild an offensive line that had collapsed in recent years. David Castro has been positively compared to one time super guard Steve Hutchinson, and may actually make for a better NFL player. He will improve the interior line play of Pittsburgh substantially especially if Pouncey can stay healthy, and Mike Adams, while not a Kalil caliber OT talent, is a very good plug in lineman, a guy they should be able to plug in on the right or left side, and get solid to good protection and run blocking going forward, especially considering Adams already has plenty of experience blocking for mobile quarterbacks like the surprisingly nimble behometh Ben Rothlesburger. The defense, in need of some youth, didn't get much help and it will be an issue to keep appraised of as the season goes forward. To be sure they did use draft picks on a nice interior lineman with great measurables, if not great athleticism, a nice interior linebacker who will have a role, but the secondary received no help and no genuine difference makers were added. Each offseason there is only so much one can do and Pittsburgh will have to hope the recent additions to the OL help to keep Ben Roth healthy, and aid the moribund running game which has been hampered by Mendenhall's lethargic, fumblehappy approach, and the lack of additional threats. Pittsburgh has high hopes that the uberathletic speed demon Chris Rainey adds an element they haven't had since the bygone days of Fast Willie Parker six years ago.
Baltimore has been exceptionally consistent under Ozzie Newsome, adding genuine talents, quality starters, and occasional elite contributers in draft after draft and this years draft was no different. After losing out on the interior lineman they had targeted to the Bengals, Baltimore traded down and added an outstanding pass rushing lineman that was consistently rated as a top 10-20 talent at slot 35 overall, a key acquistion especially following the season ending achilles injury that will sideline Terrell Suggs, and they also added an excellent guard prospect in Kelechi Osemele who should refurbish the interior line play. Third rounder Bernard Pierce should help some, but it really remains to be seen as to whether he adds anything special beyond Ray Rice. Baltimore got some helpful additions and should contend as usual for a North division title and consideration as a dark horse to win the
conference title in '12. Pittsbugh: B+, Baltimore: B
The Abraham Lincoln: Green Bay
Green Bay clearly is the Lincoln of the NFL's Memorial, while perhaps the first true NFL power along with Chicago, Green Bay's humble origins, and public ownership fit seamlessly into an image as the league's Abraham Lincoln, particularly considering the trophy is named after their famed head coach, one of their two stadiums is named after one of the leagues founding coaching, and the team itself has consistently been a part of every major development imaginable. Green Bay has been a flagship NFC team across the past eighteen years, and has seen a resurgence over this past decade, first riding the Favre revival, and then riding the renaissance in passing that has seen it's star quarterback Aaron Rodgers go from humbling Chico, California, to superstar in just two short years. Green Bay's drafts have been a great part of their success, and will be responsible in no large part for what is to come. So what of their 2012 haul? Like many a contender Green Bay didn't get a lot done after day 2, all of their picks appeared to be speculative, needs based, and with a thought towards special teams help. However there first two picks were precisely tailored towards team need, helping provide Clay Matthews with cover and support, and replacing free agent losses from 2011. Nick Perry is a risk, there is no doubt about that, he was inconsistent at best at USC, but he has prottypical measurables and is ridiculously athletic, if Green Bay can harness his raw physical tools they will be able to feature a pass rushing OLB duo similar to the Redskins pair in Orakpo and Kerrigan which will do a great job in relieving pressure on a unit that collapsed at the end of the year. Second rounder Jerel Worthy was an outstanding selection that fit a need in the interior DL, and also was a fantastic find at slot 51 considering that many expected him to go at the tail end of round 1. Green Bay should have no major issues fighting for an NFC crown in '12 so long as Rodgers can stay healthy, their only major concerns for now appear to be with building a running game which still needs substantial help. B
The Thomas Jefferson's: Philadelphia and the New York Giants
The last members of Rushmore are the twin NFC East powers New York and Philadelphia, are Jeffersons of Rushmore having built powerful, dominant franchises with a multitude of systems and Quarterbacks in recent years.I wasn't terribly impressed with the Giants draft as they invested in upside athletes, David Wilson was productive, but not particularly special when it mattered most, while Reuben Randle was pursely a projection pick, imagining what the LSU athlete might be capable of with better coaching. I wasn't terribly impressed with any of the other picks save Auburn OT Brandon Mosely who has an intriguing combination of mental make up, motor and raw tools. The Eagles were lauded for their trade up for Fletcher Cox, but I'm mostly suspicious of the prospect, he didn't enter the top 20, let alone top 10 territory until the month before the draft, where was he when players were actually on the field? Answer? Not in the top 30. Sometimes the projectable athleticism warrants the pick, as players prove that with the physical tools, all they needed was great coaching to be successful, but sometimes the lack of elite productivity on the field to pair with that athleticism is a sign of motor and mental make up issues that may be unfixable as personality is determined in individuals long before they strap on pads and put on jersey's for their college squads. What I was impressed with was in Phillys post day one haul. Kendricks has all the hallmarks of a good starting linebacker, he just needs to stay healthy. Vinny Curry produced, he may not be an elite athlete, but he was a highly productive one. I had Nick Foles ranked #4 among the quarterback class this year, so I felt the Eagles did a great job speculating in a developmental quarterback with all the tools necessary to become at worst, a good backup option, and at best, a solid starter. Fantastic value at 88th overall. Snagging a 2nd round talent in Boykin to help their secondary was a great move. McNutt adds a nice chain moving element to their passing game, something Vick will surely appreciate and Miami Offensive Lineman Brandon Washington could start at guard by 2013.
The NFL draft isn't exclusively about the big dogs though, it's also about the winners, teams that played the draft right, so far as we can ascertain without said players actually playing in the NFL, and so appeared to inject a great deal of value and talent into their rosters. Some teams consistently make this list due to outstanding scouting, and front office leadership, other teams rarely receive these plaudits due to instability or incompetence (think Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato) at the top. In 2012 some traditional powerhouses were winners, like New England, Pittburgh, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, but there were also quite a few teams that may be closing in on the powerhouses and with the help of this years haul, may join the Rushmore squads in the playoffs come January 2013. Philadelphia: B+ New York Giants: C+
My Up and Comers:
Cincinatti:
The most surprising and impressive work was contributed by the Bengals, a team more often associated with ghastly ownership issues under Mike Brown, than any genuine success. However, after acquiring Calvin Johnson clone AJ Green in 2011, and a genuine starting quarterback in Andy Dalton, the Bengals swindled the Raiders of a first and second for a broken down Carson Palmer, and made plenty of hay in free agency. Add to all of this their second playoff appearance in twenty years and long suffering fans in Cincy have plenty to be excited about. The Bengals needed help on their defensive line and added Devon Still and Brandon Thompson. Still was a projected top 10 pick in January based exclusively on projectable upside and college production, a poor performance at the combine dropped him more than 25 slots, while Brandon Thompson was considered one of the best value pick defensive lineman targets available after round 1. The Bengals stole him in the 4th. These assets were acquired after their first two picks whom were also outstanding players, Kirkpatrick, an elite CB, who dropped 8-10 slots due to criminal history and may actually prove to be a better corner than #1 rated Claiborne, and nabbed Kevin Zeitler, an interior lineman the Ravens (one of the top 5 teams in the league on draft day with GM Newsome pulling the strings) were salivating over. However the Bengals weren't even finished after these picks, they still managed to add weapons to provide cover for AJ Green, and help for Andy Dalton via the selections of Mohammed Sanu, a big target who set a Big East record for receptions, and Marvin Jones, a "hands" receiver with good speed who would work beautifully in a "Welker" like slot role for the Bengals.
The Bengals still have serious issues at running back and may be hampered going forward by merely adequate play at Quarterback (Dalton strikes me as a limited game manager, rather than a quarterback with top 10 in the league upside), but after a successful season in 2011, they had perhaps the best draft of any team in the league last week, and should be a genuine contender for the AFC North crown in '12 and a bye week come playoffs. A+

Buffalo:
Drafted a nice corner in Gilmore in round 1 and a quality free agent haul improved their chances, a genuinely good draft added several pieces to improve the offensive line, the defense and the passing game. Buffalo opened the season with an impressive 4-1 start, but suffered a 2-9 finish due to the loss of their star tailback Fred Jackson, and the tailspin Harvard kid Ryan Fitzpatrick entered the moment he signed an extraordinarily lucrative contract last fall. With the development of CJ Spiller, a return to health for Jackson, job security for Stevie Johnson. With the additions of Gilmore and Brooks, their secondary should be improved, and their OL is finally turning the corner with Glenn and Sanders coming in to help a unit already on its way towards adequate.

The Bills should be a team on the rise if Fitzpatrick can rebound from a terrible second half in '11. They have the assets in the passing game, a quality running game, and an improved OL, and the defense will undoubtedly be helped by the addition of former All Pro Mario Edwards, as well as the infusions of talent to the secondary from the draft. Buffalo will be a team to watch in 2012, with a 9 to 10 win season more than possible. B
San Diego:
San Diego missed the playoffs last year largely due to terrible QB play from Phillip Rivers, injury issues, and the always reliable awful coaching and motivational tactics of their OC masqerading as a head coach, Norv Turner, a veritable castrati when it comes to coaches. San Diego should have no problem, even with Norv at the wheel in 2012, as they had an excellent draft that infused top of the line pass rushing talent to the team in Melvin Ingram, and some quality depth and talent on day's 2 and day 3, including a potential starter in undersized stud center David Molk. They'll miss Vincent Jackson, as free agent signee Robert Meachem is nowhere near as productive and will be a question mark for them, but it's hard to imagine the Chargers struggling to take the title when their competition is a rebuilding Bronco's, and Chief's squad, and a Raiders team laid bare by hideous trades and free agent signings that emptied them of draft picks and cap money alike. B
Arizona:
Collapsed following the retirement of future hall of famer Kurt Warner in 2010, and have struggled due to misfortune, the looting of the defense in free agency by the rest of the NFL, an iffy offensive line, terrible running game, and struggles to put it lightly at quarterback. Even with picks sacrificed for Kevin Kolb in perhaps an ill advised trade a year ago, its hard to argue with the idea that the cardinals could finally be an up and comer again come this fall. They will have top draft pick Ryan Williams back after losing him in the preseason a year ago which should help the run game a great deal, draftee Michael Floyd will give Larry Fitzgerald a fantastic partner in crime since the defection of Anquan Boldin two years ago. Despite not having a 2nd rounder, the Cardinals really helped themselves on day 3, adding a solid corner prospect in Jamel Flemming, and stealing two potential starting offensive lineman in tackle Bobbie Massie, and Senio Kelemete. If they can get quality contributions from 2-3 of these four, the Cardinals could build on their 7-2 finish and possibly contend for an NFC West crown. Speculative late day 3 draftee Ryan Lindley was consistently listed as one to watch among the Quarterback prospects last spring and fell as a result of his dissapointing campaign. He has outstanding tools though, a great frame, NFL ready arm, and the ability to make all the throws, he has simply struggled with accuracy his whole career. If Whisenhunt and company can get him to improve his mechanics and become a more accurate passer, they may have found their QB of the future. A-
Detroit:
Since finishing 0-16 in 2008, Detroit had been lead adroitly by GM Martin Meyhew on draft day. The former super bowl winning redskins cornerback took advantage of the lone asset the Millen regime left, Calvin Johnson, and surrounded him with playmakers and a genuine franchise Quarterback, and built a fiercesome defensive line to help the anemic defense turn the corner and turn it they have, climbing from a sink hole record 0 victories in the 2008 season to their first playoff appearance in more than a decade with a 10-6 record in 2011. A remarkable turn around. I was a huge fan of Mayhew's drafts from 2009-2011, but I believe he deserves mixed reviews for his performance in 2012. Detroit should continue to improve in '12, and make the playoffs again, especially if Mikel Leshoure can recover from a devastating foot injury last august in time for the season (still up in the air at this point), and first round draftee Rielly Rief was an absolute steal for them even if I felt Janoris Jenkins fit their needs a little better. Rieff should inject some much needed youth, and beef to a line that has needed some attention for several years. Second round is where the draft went sideways for them, as the Lions ignored need, and talent, and instead reached for a promising WR whose final season for Oklahoma was derailed by a torn ACL in November. Broyles stock was expected to drop into mid third-4th round territory, but the Lions pulled the trigger in the late second, a big time reach in my view, as Broyles was not the kind of elite prospect that even injured, deserved such respect. Broyles strikes me as a guy that could easily become an outstanding #2 for Calvin Johnson, moving Boise State standout Titus Young to a more fitting role as a #3 WR and slot option and Burleson to a better role as their #4.
But this isn't going to happen in 2012, and the Lions needed help right now, particularly for their secondary. They attempted to address the issue pouring three day 3 picks into the position, but all were speculative and worthy risks on players with upside but also huge question marks concerning overall talent, production and pedigree. None of these draftees had remotely the same upside as corners like Trumaine Johnson, Josh Roberts, and Casey Hayward, and when offensive lineman like Peter Konz, and Mike Adams were also available, you have to question the long term speculative investment in Broyles. I did like the rest of their draft, they did have a great first round pick, and its worth remembering that the Lions made the playoffs despite losing their top 2 running backs for the season, and their top 12 overall draft pick for the majority of the season in Nick Fairley to persistant foot issues. The lions are an intriguing team going forward, especially if they can finally feature a genuine running game, but their defense will continue to hamper them all year long unless they can get help for their secondary from several day 3 picks, and keep their front seven healthy. B
Carolina:
The Panthers needed to add some weapons for Newton, continue to rebuild the defense, and improve the OL in front of their start quarterback. They did a nice job early addressing two of their needs in drafting a plug and play superstar linebacker in Luke Kuechly, who should be a borderline pro bowler if everything goes well, and Silatolu should be able to start as an interior lineman for them by the end of the season. However, they wasted their fourth rounder on a project rotational defensive end with limited upside, and the bulk of the rest of their picks were as bad if not worse save for Joe Adams who has starting potential given time to develop. Their season may hinge on how well the small moves they made manage to help their defense and Cam Newton continue to develop and improve. B-
The Three Stooges of Draft Day:
Cleveland:
What can one say? The Browns were set up beautifully to run this and the 2013 draft after the Julio Jones trade a year ago but wasted the bulk of their booty on an old QB prospect, some busts and interesting WR prospect Greg Little (reminds me of the Giants stud WR Hakeem Nicks). While I agreed with the Trent Richardson acquisition, i disagreed with the means (should have stood pat), the selection of Weeden was a reach that doesnt offer a long term solution, and the rest of their draft was a series of disappointments. C
Indy:
Andrew Luck was a no brainer, but that doesn't excuse leaving your brain at home for the rest of the draft. Teams poached starters left and right in free agency, and with top draft picks to use in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th round, was it really in the best interests of the Colts to select two solid tight end prospects? I don't believe so. The Colts still need to rebuild their OL, their defense, and their running game, particularly if Donald Brown isn't the answer, and with Lamar Miller sitting their late third, the selection of an injury prone unproductive WR struck me as offbase. The Colts should be a leading contender for the #1 overall draft pick in 2013 as well (with Matt Barkley, Tyler Bray, and Tyler Wilson potential leading contenders, not exactly need positions for the Colts). C
Jacksonville:
It's tough to fail from such a high slot, but its hard to argue that the Jags improved themselves much with this draft. Blackmon should finally provide them with a quality starter and give Mike Thomas a break and a quality role in the slot, but after that this draft was a bust, they may have gotten a good pass rusher in Andre Branch, but their D was already a strong point, and they didn't help themselves out much at all after that. To draft defense obsessively after round 1 is more than a curious move for a team that featured little talent at the playmaking positions save Maurice Jones Drew, and injured running back Rashad Jenning, and slot receiver Mike Thomas. While some pundits argued that the trade up for Justin Blackmon would give rookie bust Blaine Gabbert the tools to prove it or get out (in time for a 3 deep blue chip QB class next year), I question the reasoning as the OL remains a work in progress, and they have no veteran #1 or #2 legit WR, just a rookie and an outstanding slot guy playing out of position in Mike Thomas. All this being said, Gabberts #'s at Missouri suggested he was a fraud before he was drafted (16-9 TD-Int ratio as a junior in the no defense big-12, and ghastly accuracy metrics in the intermediate and deep passing game), so his awful rookie season wasn't terribly surprising, and come a year from now, I won't be surprised when Jacksonville is picking top 5-10 despite a very nice defense, moving to LA (well in 2014), and drafting Matt Barkley with that move in mind (or settling for Tyler Bray or Tyler Wilson). D+
Wild Cards:
Some teams took very interesting risks on draft day and their futures may hedge on how these bets play out. My thoughts on a few of them:
Kansas City:
Pioli hasn't been nearly as impressive with Kansas City as he was in New England, and his performance last weekend wasn't necessairly anymore inspiring, as it was filled with risk, and in my view, the wrong kinds of risk to take in team building. Drafting Dontario Poe was a huge risk, the guy is off the charts athletic but was not remotely productive in a terrible conference. If he couldn't hack it against players who will never see an NFL roster, how will he hack it against the very best college players that could make said rosters? I am highly skeptical and suspect that he will bust. Pioli's 2nd and 3rd rounders were quality speculative lineman with a lot of upside and genuine risk. I wasn't terribly impressed with any of their other picks as well, as they were generally athletes with spotty track records. If Crennel and company can extract the potential from them, however, particularly day 3 draftees Devon Wylie (a potential chain moving Welker type), and A&M tailback Cyrus Gray, they may be able to turn the corner. A genuine high risk draft with a boom bust DT that I suspect will bust. The Chiefs are still stuck with a middling quarterback and consistency issues and I believe their season's prospects weren't terribly well helped by the draft, however w/a new Quarterback in '13, they will likely contend for the playoffs, 2012 should simply be about the pursuit of a .500 record, particularly as Jaamal Charles works his way back to health. B-
New York Jets:
A deeply fascinating draft from a deeply troubled team. A great deal of bloggers and media commentators ripped their draft and I can see why as culture, remains one of their biggest issues going forward, the team is incredibly dysfunctional and did itself no favors with the Holmes/Sanchez debacle, the Tebow acquisition, and Greg McElroy's post season interview indicting the locker room environment which he described as exceptionally selfish and me first. This draft will do NOTHING to change that as their top draftee was a high risk player with ego, attitude and motor issues. However, Quentin Coples was regarded as a potential top 5 draft pick last summer, and comes to the table with the same skill set he had a year ago, just a fall season of up and down play that lowered his stock. The jets could be a perfect scenario for him as Ryan has a fantastic track record with front seven players with motor issues. He tends to get the most out of them, and if he can work as well with Coples as he has with previous prodigy's with motor issues, Coples will turn into a pro bowl caliber pass rusher. Unlike most, my concern was with their second rounder. There is no production to go on, and one can't be sure if Hill is simply a great athlete, and not a great WR, or a great WR trapped in a poor program at Georgia Tech to showcase his talents. He has all the measurables, but he was a real risk with so many great WR's available. Still one must give them credit for jumping on a WR prospect that had risen on some boards as high as the 20th-25th slot overall. The rest of their draft was speculative, but featured some interesting targets including an exceptionally intriguing running back prospect in Terrence Ganaway, a big, and very fast tailback with a second gear that could resolve their issues in the running game. New England should own the division, but Buffalo will be a tough out for the Jets in the battle for runner up. B-
Chicago:
Got a steal in Brandon Marshall for two third rounders. The guy will be just what they need, as he was hugely productive with Denver and Cutler, and should excel, especially when/if Chicago can get back Johnny Knox. I thought they could have gone other directions on draft day, as Shea struck me as a player not worthy of a top 20 pick, though he should contribute. Alshon Jefferey is the ultimate in boom bust picks. Ranked as a top 5 prospect before the season, he never managed to get his weight under control and had severe conditioning issues all year. If he can get his conditioning under control he represents a huge asset for their passing game, though he would be a bit of duplication, as he and Marshall are both size guys, not speed guys. The rest of the draft featured interesting targets with a lot of potential 1 or 2 may end up being useful among the four. A real risky draft for a team that remains on the outside looking in in the North considering how rapidly Detroit's improved, and Green Bay's nearly undefeated season. However, if it pays off, their LB corps just got an infusion of youth, and for the first time in my lifetime, the Bears actually could have a receiving corps that isn't a total embarrassment. C+
Tampa Bay:
Really impressive draft for a team that took a step back the previous two offseasons. A lot of rumors that the Bucs deliberately sat out the '10 and '11 free agency periods to help serve the debt of their EPL purchase, and to bank money to play with the '12 crop (how is this not exactly what Dallas and Washington engaged in Roger?) via deliberately evading the traditional salary cap floor. Josh Freeman will definitely appreciate the help. Doug Martin should help the running game a ton, as Blount lacks burst and acceleration, and has awful hands. Martin has a ton of experience running screens, and could steal the starting job. Sixth and seventh round draftees, traditionally training camp fodder w/special teams upside could actually contribute. Michael Smith and Drake Dunsmore could both find a place on this team. They traded down in round 1, and it carried a ton of risk, skipping out on #1 rated CB Claiborne, and #1 rated WR Justin Blackmon (neither rated #1 overall positionally on my board), but I can see the reasoning. Mark Barron was a wonderfully sound, well coached player with tons of upside who can step in and start immediately w/o any concerns in his background. Still, was that the best use of the trade down and pick? Not in my book. I would have dealt down for interior OL help, or DL help, or CB Help, there was plenty of all of the above available, and they would have acquired more assets for their trouble as well as a starter at least as impactful as Barron (think Steelers draftee DeCastro, Chargers draftee Ingram, Jets draftee Coples, Patriots draftee Chandler Jones, or one of the two outstanding corners with great metrics in Dre Kirkpatrick, or Jenkins). Instead, they found a starter at safety who doesnt have greatness in him in my view, but should be one of the better safeties in the NFC in a few years. Nice, but not a maximization of assets in my view. They picked up a real nice OLB prospect in Lavonte David who should step right in and start and speculated on an intriguing LB prospect in Najee Goode. While I disagreed with some of the moves, it would not shock me at all if the Bucs came away with 4 starters from that draft, and that is a wonderful performance. Add in FA acquisitions including Vincent Jackson and you have to know that Josh Freeman and Greg Schiano are smiling.
Schiano also signed former rutgers standout DT Eric LeGrand. Who, you might ask? Eric LeGrand was paralyzed during a football game eighteen months ago, and Schiano pulled relief duty for LeGrand's mother at his bedside for weeks after his injury. It may come across to some as a cynical marketing ploy, but Schiano's actions following the devastating injury are a fitting rebuttal to the behavior that was noted by a few former Dolphins when talking about Alabama head coach Nick Saban, who apparently ignored seriously injured players during training camp nearly a decade ago. When building a new culture in Tampa Bay, starting with a class that included LeGrand can only help the cause. B
Washington:
For a team that hasn't drafted and developed a franchise quarterback since Hall of Famer Sammy Baugh seventy five years ago, perhaps it was well past due to try again, afterall it has been eighteen years since they drafted uberbust Heath Shuler #3 overall and so they did, trading #1 overall draft picks in 2013 and 2014, a second rounder in 2012, and switching slots with St. Louis in 2012 for the privilege of drafting Robert Griffin III. He's a spread system quarterback used to playing out of the shotgun, but he's also a quarterback who was remarkably accurate when taking snaps from the center, and in the pocket belying concerns about his athleticism getting in the way of his development. RG3 graduated high school in 3 years, received his B.A. from Baylor after three years as well, was an olympic candidate in the hurdles, and already enrolled in grad school when the Redskins drafted him. Despite the comparisons, RG3 is nothing at all like Vick, or Cam Newton for that matter, indeed if there's any past quarterback that seems a reasonable match for him, it would be fellow strong armed, and hyperathletic former BYU stud Steve Young, now a Hall of Famer and Super Bowl winner for the 49ers. The Redskins took a huge risk in the selection, but management and the coaching staff felt this was their one opportunity to reasonably address the quarterback position with a prospect tailor made for their system, with the tools (strong arm, accuracy, athletic as all get out, fantastic mental make up, and spatial and football intelligence) necessary to succeed, as the 2013 crop was expected to house inferior prospects that weren't as good a fits for the system (Barkley, Bray, Wilson), and Shanahan and crew expected they would probably not be in position to trade up to acquire said quarterback anyway considering the improvements made over the past three offseasons.
The rest of the draft carried a great deal of risk, and involved some iffy acquisitions: they took a C/G in Lebrius in round 3 about 2-3 slots overdrafted who represents a potential skill set to start, grabbed Kirk Cousins when he slipped 2 full rounds on their boards (Shanahan had him rated #3 overall in the QB class, and as a high second round talent, he felt he stole outside of the top 100 in round 4). The move was criticized around the league, and considering the success rate of lineman drafted in round 4 historically (a remarkable 50% success rate over the past two decades), it may be justified, but the Redskins featured one of the worst 1-2 punches in the NFL at Quarterback in 2011 alongside Minnesota, Seattle, and Cleveland, and the F.O. apparently was desirous of remedying the situation by drafting 2 QB's this year, and completely turning over the position by the spring of '13. Cousins does have backup level talent, and a decent chance of becoming a solid starter in this league, so from my vantage point it was a risky move that had some sense behind it. Other day 3 draftees included a pair of lineman with solid potential, a starting OLB who appears headed to play ILB, and provide depth at OLB, and two DB's drafted late who appear to be training camp bodies. The acquisition of Chase Minniefield as an undrafted free agent could help a secondary that needed a great deal of help on draft day and didn't get it. The Redskins won't make a run at a playoff spot in 2012 especially with a rookie at the helm and a relatively difficult schedule, but they should be able to collect six or seven wins and perhaps position themselves for a playoff run in late '13. C
The Static's:
Atlanta:

Peter Konz was a steal in round 2, and should help their line play a good deal going forward. The rest of their draft was iffy at best. C-
Dallas:
A great deal of the print, radio and TV media loved their draft for the Claiborne trade up but I did not. Claiborne as mentioned earlier, had iffy metrics in '11, and that concerns me, and for a team that really needed a culture change to help address the 4th quarter chokes that cost them a playoff spot, getting 1 impact player simply wasn't enough, particularly when he needs as much time as Claiborne may need to develop his craft. Dallas also was hit by the Goodell cap penalties in march, but it didnt block them from signing Brandon Carr to help the secondary and that should help them. Their secondary should be improved, and if their running game can stay healthy, and their playmakers, then the team should fight for a playoff spot in 2012, but the draft did little to help this cause.
Denver: Got two decent potential starters in the 4th and 7th round, but really missed badly on the rest of the draft in my view. Osweiller is an intriguing prospect, and if he can develop under Manning, than they should have a nice transition following Mannings retirement in '14 or '15 (unless forced too earlier), but he's not ready now, and the ghastly play of Painter and Orlovsky in 2011 isn't exactly a testament to his ability to help developmental QB's learn as they hold clipboards behind him. Not a great day for Denver.
Houston: It may not be fair to call this a static draft for them as they landed some genuine help for the defense in Mercilus and supersteal Jared Crick (rated a 2nd round talent on some boards in the fall, stolen in the sixth round), and nice offensive line additions in Brooks and Jones. My major concern was the reach for Posey in round 2. So much talent was available there, and there was very little to recommend the pick. Draft should simply reinforce Houston's place as the power of the AFC South as long as Schaub can stay healthy.
Miami: It's a make or break draft from the F.O. this year, and it's hard to see the team improving dramatically with this haul, the pieces simply aren't in place with the moves they made this offseason, and while this draft may pay dividends down the line, it could be too late for GM Ireland to keep his job. Tannehill is an interesting QB prospect with genuine talent and raw ability, but in a normal draft and during the college season itself he was never seen as a first rounder, but come draft day he jumped from a 25-35 valuation to 8th overall because of the demand of QB's from about five or six poor teams this offseason (Indy, Cleveland, Washington, Miami, Seattle, Kansas City) picking in the top 15. They got an absolute steal in Jonathan Martin in round 2, he had a top 10 grade through November in the fall but his measurables killed his value. he can step right in and start for them at RT for ten years, and that will help. Lamar Miller has starting tailback potential, which is something they may need as they didn't get much from any running back not named Reggie Bush last year, including their second rounder from '11 Daniel Thomas. This draft could end up landing them starters at QB, RB, TE, and OT down the road, but after trading away Brandon Marshall, their WR corps is outright awful, and they will not be able to contend this year, and that may cost the architects job. C
New Orleans: A horrible draft. There's no other way to say it. They surrendered picks in trades, and had their draft gutted. Nick Toon could help the WR corps, but New Orleans was badly hurt by this offseason in more ways than just the draft and with the entire division having improved this offseason through the draft, trades, or free agency, this can only hurt them. F
Oakland: Horrendous trades gutted this draft, including losing a 1st, 3rd, and 4th for 3 quarterbacks in Palmer, Campbell, and Pryor. With defections via free agency, little cap money to spend, and an awful draft featuring nothing but bodies to hold down the fort till they can get all their picks to use in '13, this draft is nothing but a disaster. May have landed a starting lineman but that's it. F
San Francisco: The team has had some exceptional drafts in recent years, but this haul is head scratching at best. Jenkins was a big reach at WR, James is a fantastic talent, but with Kendell Hunter in place, it didn't make a lot of sense unless Gores' days are numbered. They got an interesting pair of prospects in Looney and Robinson, a nice safety prospect, as well as a development interior lineman in Slowey. They needed more from this draft, but didn't get it. On the positive side, they absolutely stole Manningham with the money involved, his metrics suggest he could explode, especially with Kaepernick behind center if Smith got hurt or was benched. With that defense, and now James, Hunter, and Gore in the backfield, and Davis, Moss, Manningham, and Crabtree catching passes, they look primed for another NFC West crown, though Arizona could give them a big fight. D
Seattle: strange team, added a third 2nd string QB prospect in Wilson who could develop into something, and decided to take a huge risk on Irvin, who has a ton of potential, but also a ton of holes to be concerned with. Beyond that, nothing really to recommend in the draft. They are lucky St. Louis didn't improve their WR corps AGAIN and so should finish third instead of last, again. D+
St. Louis: I had real questions with their moves, they could have gone a lot of directions and I didnt like how they played their trade downs following their target Blackmon being nabbed by the Jags. Brockers is a risk coming out of that LSU DL bust factory, but players are players, and he has the potential to become another star on their DL. Their second rounder was a guy I thought represented great speculative value in the late 3rd round or 4th, in other words, an awful big reach. Stealing J. Jenkins in round 2 was brilliant, as I actually believe he's a better fundamental corner than Claiborne, the player a lot of people felt they should have drafted at 6 instead of trading down. Instead, they got Brockers, and Jenkins for the price of that pick and if Brockers comes through and Jenkins stays out of trouble, they really helped the D a ton. Trumaine Johnson is the linchpin pick, an athlete who needs to learn from Fischer how to become a defensive playmaker. Fischer has a great history with corners and if he can get this guy to develop, they will have fixed half of their awful secondary via one draft. The problem? No WR's, STILL. St. Louis has hampered Bradford development via horrid OL play, and a combo of ghastly luck/injuries at the WR position (5 of the top 7 guys in '10 and '11 missed part or all of one or both of those seasons due to injury), and their OL and WR positions were not helped at all via this draft. As a result, while the defense may look a lot better in '12, the offense could still be badly hampered by how they handled their trade down draft days. C+
Tennessee: The team should contend again for a southern crown but I have a hard time seeing them turning the corner with a developmental guy at QB in Locker, and Hasselbeck, injured and inconsistent. I liked their draft day, they sat still and simply collected outstanding talents and fits for their team in Kendell Wright, which gives them a fantastic collection of WR's for Locker in injured Britt, stud in waiting TE Jared Cook, solid #2/#3 Nate Washington, and the aforementioned speedster Wright. They grabbed two potential starters for the defense in Zach Brown and Mike Martin. Still, while the draft is nice, it's hard to see it making a huge difference in their '12 season. They are on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and will need to stay healthy to have a chance at stealing a wild card. They're renaissance under Munchak will depend upon the development of Locker going forward. B-

No comments:

Post a Comment